Genomics Disillusionment

Gartner Hype CycleOK debate about the future of genomics research is still not over, after New York Times now it is Telegraph which carries a dreadful title One gene will not reveal all life’s secrets written by Steve Jones. You can find a better commentary on this article by Genetic Future, but for me title itself is flawed. What do you mean by One gene will not reveal all life’s secrets, I don’t think anyone ever claimed that, at least not any biologist. One genome will not reveal all life’s secrets could have been a more appropriate title for the discussion. Anyway after a series of commentaries on genome-wide association study (GWA study or GWAS) published in New England Journal of Medicine (you can find related blog articles here, here and here), it now appears that everyone from mainstream media is trying to prove that current approach to genomic research is misguided and scientist are wasting tax payers money. Unfortunately most of fuel for this burning debate is coming from scientific community itself. For example Steve Jones who is professor of genetics at University College London writes some very absurd comments
Whatever the panjandrums of science decide to do with their Everest of cash, it is time to turn to one of the few genetical proverbs, for their mountain has laboured and brought forth not much more than a mouse. And what was that adage about throwing good money after bad?

No doubt that there is substantial hype surrounding potential outcomes of current genomics research, but that is something which comes as baggage with any promising technology. Is genomics research following Gartner hype cycle? I guess YES. Hype Cycle (HC) is used to characterize the over-enthusiasm or “hype” and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies. HC isn’t confined to GWA studies but it describe the whole wave of genomic revolution. A typical HC consist of 5 phases: technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment and plateau of productivity. I guess currently genomics research is entering the “trough of disillusionment” phase because it failed to meet hyperbolic expectations, which will attract more critiques. Consequently, it will be less attractive for media, funding agencies and frivolous researchers, although it will not affect serious researchers to do some great research which will move it across “slope of enlightenment” phase leading further evolution of our understanding about the benefits and practical application of the genomic technology and it may be years – decades, even – before this knowledge is translated into new treatments (“plateau of productivity”). Once the benefits of genomic research become widely demonstrated and accepted, people will realize the impact of research on predictive and personalize medicine. Still there is a long road ahead before genomics vision turn into reality but there is no reason to give up due to these kind of unhealthy criticisms.

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4 Responses to “Genomics Disillusionment”
  1. 04.22.2009

    Genomics Disillusionment: OK debate about the future of genomics research is still not over, after New York Time.. http://tinyurl.com/co4nhj

  2. 04.22.2009

    Genomics Disillusionment
    http://tinyurl.com/co4nhj

  3. 04.22.2009

    As you know, Gartner originated the hype cycle analysis from repeated observations of IT innovations. As an IT research company we can’t say for sure whether the Hype Cycle applies to Genomics. However it would appear to have the right characteristics of a major social excitement episode disconnected in its timing from the slower science and engineering progress realities. Researchers in other science areas like stem cells and functional foods have reported that they see the hype cycle in action.
    Perhaps you could have a go at sketching your own view of Hype Cycle for Genomics Abhishek. What were the milestone episodes so far? For example what was the trigger and what events marked the peak of inflated expectations?

  4. 04.22.2009

    Nice suggestion, yes I guess we can do that with little effort (may be upcoming post), I just wanted to draw a loose connection between Hype Cycle and Genomics, but looking on big picture it will be not very different from what you suggest about stem cells research.